Return to Travel and Land Use Forecasting  Travel and Land Use Forecasting    Project Summary :: 1  2  3  4  5   New Start Forecasting for Commuter Rail Line - Salt Lake City, Utah Project Background Resource Systems Group staff led a mode choice model development and New Starts forecasting effort for the proposed Ogden, UT to Salt Lake City, UT Commuter Rail line. This project involved taking FHWA and FTA through a thorough review of the regional travel models, building an advanced practice mode choice model and using Summit to gain FTA approval of the forecasts. Project Scope RSG staff began a multi-year effort by introducing FTA and FHWA to the regional travel models in significant depth during a cordial and productive 3-day review that set the tone for the project. Subsequently, an agreed upon model development plan was executed that included revisions to every modeling step, most notably a completely new mode choice model. The new regional model was one of the first in the country to link with Summit and the enhanced mode choice model ultimately featured three modes not in existence in the region - commuter rail, bus rapid transit and HOT lanes. This fact required a careful review of modeling assumptions and validation of the forecasts relative to systems currently existing elsewhere in the U.S. Project Results Initial ridership estimates for 2030 were approximately 35,000 passengers per weekday. The efforts of RSG staff ultimately lowered the forecast to 25,000 and demonstrated the defensibility of the demand estimate, a conservative number that gained FTA approval and still suggested a beneficial project. The Ogden to Salt Lake City commuter rail line was the only new applicant for federal transit funding to receive a recommended rating from FTA staff in their 2003 annual report to Congress. A direct result of the trust established between RSG staff and FTA modeling experts is that Salt Lake City was one of a handful of regions chosen to participate in a New Starts forecasting panel studying changes to FTA forecasting requirements.